From The “NOT Likely To Prevail” Dept.: Any Claim That Merck Has “Undervalued” Idenix Shares — At ~320 Per Cent Premiums

New Merck, Reviewed

Okay — this suit is just. . . silly. Let us start with the adage that such suits rarely succeed. Any time a target is bought for more than say 30 per cent overits pre-tender trading price, a suit alleging a “too-cheap” buyout/tender offer, almost never meets with success, in Delaware Chancery Court.

You see, Merck is paying well north of triple Idenix’s prior trading range. This suit is D.O.A. Truly. Most of the Idenix candidates are Phase I/II. This means there is much uncertainty over whether any actual, FDA-approved drug will ever reach the US market (i.e., any significant rise in annual revenue will appear). An offer that prices Idenix at over three-times what it was worth, according to independent buyers and sellers, the morning before Merck’s designs on it became known. . . sure is likely to be deemed very “fair“…

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